SSRN
The dividend-price present-value identity includes buybacks and issuance, from an aggregate perspective. Aggregate dividend-price ratios forecast buybacks and issuance, as well as returns, in the data. An alternative aggregate ratio, combining dividends and buybacks, also forecasts cash flows and returns. The long-run variance decomposition of either value ratio says that both cash-flow and discount-rate expectations significantly drive stock prices.
Seth Pruitt 