Households experience less earnings risk than primary earners alone, because of intra-household insurance along the intensive and extensive margins.
Factor estimation using instrumental data to capture both cross-sectional and time-series variation in factor loadings [SSRN]
Firms' investment decisions contain new information about future aggregate productivity shocks. [SSRN]
We evaluate a wide array of systemic risk indicators and their ability to forecast the quantiles of real activity, and propose methods for combining them that show there is a latent systemic risk factor that is robustly related to future macroeconomic downside risk. [publication] [SSRN]
The 3PRF is a simple least squares forecaster using many predictor variables that directly estimates the relevant forecast factors and is asymptotically normal for the best possible forecast. [publication] [SSRN]
Young workers' hours and wages are more cyclically volatile than prime-aged workers' and a successful explanation of these facts comes from differential demand for young and prime-aged labor. [publication] [draft]
By accounting for uncertainty over observed data, a model of a learning Federal Reserve explains the rise and fall in American inflation as tied to a concurrent rise and fall in the perceived Philips curve trade-off. [publication] [draft]