Returns and cash flows are robustly predicted by valuation ratio cross sections, which expose growth and value assets' different exposures to economic shocks, with the implication that discount rates are less persistent than implied by leading asset pricing models. [publication] [SSRN]
Author: sethpruittnet
Uncertainty over Models and Data: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation (JMCB 2012)
By accounting for uncertainty over observed data, a model of a learning Federal Reserve explains the rise and fall in American inflation as tied to a concurrent rise and fall in the perceived Philips curve trade-off. [publication] [draft]
Estimating the Market-Perceived Monetary Policy Rule (AEJMacro 2011) w/ Hamilton and Borger
Using macroeconomic news, we directly estimate the policy rule used by the market to link their expectations of future economic conditions to future monetary policy. [publication] [draft]
The Pseudo-Information Filter (WP)
The pseudo-information filter offers significant computational advantages over the Kalman filter when the data are high-dimensional. [draft]
Markup Variation and Endogenous Fluctuations in the Price of Investment Goods (WP) w/ Floetotto and Jaimovich
The price of investment goods relative to consumptions goods is driven by both exogenous technology shocks and endogenous markup fluctuations due to changes in the relative competitive environment. [draft]
